Now that the recession is over and we've returned to more pleasant conversations on topics of growth strategies, it's time to begin talking once more about that nasty little War for Talent that people have been alluding to.  If you recall, there's a generational battle roiling America, based solely on the fact that Baby Boomers are beginning to retire. Their ranks are huge; hence the term 'baby boom', and are succeeded by a generation of approximately 10,000,000 fewer bodies. This doesn't mean our population is getting smaller, just that the population of working age will be smaller for a period of about 15 years until the Millenials get fully developed into productive citizens. And the loss of a large generation of people who hold the longest professional intellectual capital for their respective companies or industry is a daunting challenge for the next 15 years. This period happens to occur at the same time we're emerging from a deep recession, which means we will shortly see surging employment needs. And to make matters worst of all, the current unemployment rate for college-educated employees is 4.8%; hardly a recessionary level. We're perfectly poised for a perfect storm of resurgent hiring and depleting supply. One of the bedrocks of our economy is that supply and demand need to be aligned. The next 15 years will be a period of significant 'qualified' labor shortages. So, how are you going to plan for that? Here are some thoughts:

1. Retention strategy. We have had an increase in retention bonuses over the past 12 months. Except we don't refer to them as retention bonuses, we call them counter-offers. A counter-offer occurs AFTER a key employee resigns; a retention bonus occurs BEFORE key employees start fielding offers. Neither are fool-proof and both carry significant downside risks should the employee base realize that forgoing raises for the good of the company throughout 2009 doesn't seem to garner the size of a raise that 'key employees' or 'resigned employees' can get with a simple threat to leave the company. In fact, the best retention strategies are very rarely monetary. People leave a company because of their boss, not because of money. Throwing money at a departing employee simply sours the relationship further, in most cases. The employee quickly discovers that he/she has the same job with the same bad boss but only with more money and the boss discovers he/she still has the same unhappy employee, except they're making money that is above the budget for the department.

2. Recruitment strategy. Most companies use multiple approaches to hiring; they 'run an ad in the paper', they post a job to a web job board and their website, they search resumes through a job board or their internal applicant tracking system and they use social networking tools, such as LinkedIn, Plaxo, Facebook or Twitter; primarily as a sophisticated 'job board'. All of these approaches are mostly unilateral: 'advertise' an opening and wait for the 'applicants' to apply. This process works for the majority of positions today and will still work for the majority of positions in 2020. But most positions are support roles with broad functions; inside sales, cost accounting, basic engineering, administration, outside sales roles that are broadly defined, IT, finance, etc. but how does the company attract people whose contributions to the company are most critical? These positions include sales professionals, key marketing or product management, strong P&L leadership, strategic thinking, leadership, or just people who can bring an extraordinary improvement over the current employees within the company? The short answer is; you have to go get them. Recruit them. Direct sourcing. This is the last bastion of human resources or internal recruitment departments. Direct sourcing is hard, slow and requires a skillful mix of sales, empathy and intellect. Enticing a top performer away from their stable, safe and comfortable employer doesn't work by placing ads and waiting for them to apply.

3. Web 2.0. Direct sourcing, as well as expansive applicant flow sourcing requires embracing the newest social networking sites to be effective.  Only 5% of new hires come through direct sourcing techniques.  5%.  Not a lot.  Yet those 5%, if you assume them to be 'A' players as defined by Brad Smart in TopGrading*, would deliver a 3-5 fold increase in productivity over an applicant-flow B player.  B players often look, sound and talk similar to A players. A players don't read job postings. But A players DO read internet information on their prospective new employer. And here's the other side of Web 2.0 networking sites. Negative employer branding is rampant today. Every downsized disgruntled employee has been given an e-microphone to broadcast to the world how bad that employer is. How the company acts to squelch the legitimate sour grapes is a new window into how 'digital dirt' is being managed. As a current example, LinkedIn has a Group called "Cooper". I'm an ex-Cooper guy so I joined the group since I still know a lot of Cooper people. Recently Cooper has decided that the Group can exist, but they've eliminated any ability to have a dialog within the Group, rendering the group moot.  Akin to burning books, I'm not sure this is the most effective way of addressing potential digital dirt, but perhaps there was more to the story. Web 2.0 is developing. There will be new and creative approaches to engaging people in a dialog. The important lesson is, the more networked you are the higher probability you have to engage the right talent.

In short. It's going to be a wild ride in talent acquisition for the next several years. The talent pool is already thin at the most technical levels and that pool is draining rapidly. Unfortunately, there is little counter-strategy to the sudden loss of a critical employee other than simply going directly after a replacement. The time for cogent workforce planning and employee retention strategies is already here. Future solutions will include a melange of approaches; contingent labor, onboarding programs, boomerang hires, flexible job descriptions, 'best athlete' recruitment strategies and grow your own college recruitment plans. One thing is certain, the emphasis on direct sourcing will have to increase in order to attract top talent throughout the next decade or longer. Good for me, not so good for many companies.