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THE BUZZ 10 Years and still #1 |
Egret Consulting eNewsletter |
November 2009 Vol. 10 Issue 11 Unemployment and other good news... by Ted Konnerth
Way back in March of 2009, I wrote an article on the rarity of finding a blue footed booby when the universe is surrounded by pigeons. The analogy was that the current employment picture is woefully obfuscated by the seemingly endless number of unemployed people; actively searching, sending resumes, calling and replying to ads. The current unemployment statistics for the economy are right around 10%, which is very high for our recent memories (which tend to run very short). However, in the November Trends Magazine (www.trends-magazine.com) they break the unemployment numbers down by education. The results are interesting and help to explain the misalignment in numbers of unemployed versus the inability to find good talent. Here are the numbers:
Total Unemployment= 9.8%
In our business, we deal almost exclusively with college-educated people. Not every position requires a degree, but it's fairly rare for us to identify a client need where college is not highly preferred. As such, the pool of candidates we're fishing in is highly employed. 4.8% employment is close to maximum. About 3 years ago, the rate for college educated was 3% and that was a low point. So the economic 'crash' has rendered an additional 1.8% of college-educated people unemployed. Still a lot of people, and still not acceptable, but the reality of finding talent in a 4.8% unemployment market is difficult.
Last month I reported that Robert Half has announced survey results that 47% of managers felt there was a shortage of qualified applicants. A 4.8% unemployment rate substantiates that survey.
Trends Magazine speaks to the macro-economic realities of our economy and how our education system has not well-prepared our youngsters for employment in an economy where mental skills are more in demand than labor. There is a huge shortage of engineers right now and it is projected to get much worse. We'll leave the macro-economic perspective for later, but the current unemployment stats paint a pretty poor picture for anyone who is a laborer.
The talent market is very thin, and has been thin for the past 2-3 years. It will get much worse over the next 10 years, starting in 2010. With the stock market resurging, the 401K accounts of baby boomers will be returned to levels that will provide comfortable retirement and they will return to their retirement plans they had constructed prior to the Great Recession. So what exactly is the 'good news'?
Talent right now is affordable. The quality people who are employed are nervous. They're looking for stability and a chance for advancement. Their current employer has gone through multiple RIF's and everyone is nervous about the next one; will I have a job and if so what will my career path look like in a down-sized version of the company? That talent is available, affordable and open to solicitation.
That window will close in the next 6 months. Once the economy is perceived as growing, the talent market will shift immediately to increasing salaries, signing bonuses and a series of counter-offer attempts to keep existing talent. The next 5-10 years will be a slugfest for talent as the pool of talent for senior positions is rendered dangerously thin by sheer virtue of the exodus of the boomers.
As I reported last month, the hiring cycle post-recession will be fraught with significant additional expense: signing bonuses, increased benefits, relocation allowances and demands for contractual agreements that stipulate exit strategies and protections for early dismissal. I believe non-competes will become an impediment to hiring quality talent and in the face of competitive demand most talent will have multiple offers so the demand of forcing a non-compete will be refused.
In short, the recession is over. There will be lingering effects for some time, but the time to find the right talent is now. Prices are going to rise rapidly and the competition for the best GenX talent will be fierce.
The Egret Team wishes all our readers a
Happy Thanksgiving!!! Christmas
gift for the lighting lover? |
"The seeking is the goal and the search is the answer." -unknown |
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Ask An Expert: I wanted to ask your professional opinion on something. I was wondering if it's okay to send two different versions of my resume to the same company. I won't be changing the body, or the past experiences or accomplishments. It would just be one of the job descriptions at the top that would tailor to a new position that they have open. I have so many different experiences in the past years that it's impossible to fit them all on there and keep everything on two pages. Please let me know what you think. Please email Prudence your question and look for the answer next month. __________________
Please take 6 seconds to describe the quality of candidates you have been meeting.
Results: Survey of the Generations
Please tell us what category you fall into.
81% Baby Boomers
16% Generation Y
3% Generation X Tell us your retirement plans.
42% Planning full retirement
50% Plan for partial retirement
8% Plan not to retire at all Population
50% Distributor
34% Manufacturer
16% Other | |
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Industry Events We welcome the opportunity to meet! Please email for an appointment. NAED Western Region Conference | |
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Industry Specialties: - Electrical Manufacturing | |
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Mergers & Acquisitions We offer confidential consulting services to help you sell, or re-capitalize your company. Our 25 years of industry relationships offer a unique process of confidentially identifying the 'right fit' buyers. Contact Ted Konnerth, tk@egretconsulting.com, for a consultation on marketing or re-capitalizing your company. | |
